Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5663…7e57 other 127 markets active 4d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$10
politics 35% −$10
sports 10% −$54
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 126 -3.5% -12.7% 10% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.7% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage112d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $338 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $336 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $238 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $242 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $483 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $317 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $308 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $128 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $167 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $146 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 06 $161 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 8d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 9d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $236 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $236 25d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 25d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $188 25d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $188 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 29d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $164 31d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $164 32d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $181 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 369 history records