trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $275 | $274 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $190 | $182 | −$8 (-4%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $150 | $131 | −$19 (-12%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $100 | $118 | +$18 (+18%) |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $74 | $84 | +$10 (+14%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $40 | $0 | −$40 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Spurs | 33¢ | 0¢ | $13 | $0 | −$13 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | Cavaliers | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? | Jun 04 | $39 | +$6 | +16% |
| Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? | Jun 04 | $7 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $43 | −$40 | -94% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 21 | $14 | −$13 | -94% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 17¢ | $21 | 40m |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 16¢ | $58 | 1h |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | BUY Yes | 17¢ | $53 | 4h |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 4¢ | $107 | 3d |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 8¢ | $160 | 3d |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 11¢ | $203 | 3d |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 16¢ | $293 | 3d |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? | SELL Yes | 100¢ | $46 | 9d |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? | BUY Yes | 79¢ | $39 | 10d |
| Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? | SELL Yes | 14¢ | $5 | 10d |
| Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? | BUY Yes | 15¢ | $7 | 10d |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL Yes | 4¢ | $4 | 10d |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 4¢ | $4 | 12d |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY Yes | 15¢ | $43 | 14d |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | BUY Cavaliers | 4¢ | $1 | 22d |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY Spurs | 32¢ | $3 | 24d |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY Spurs | 33¢ | $11 | 24d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -60.4% | -64.2% | 20% | 20% | -53.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -60.4% | -64.2% | 20% | 20% | -53.8% |
| all | 5 | -60.4% | -64.2% | 20% | 20% | -53.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -64.2% | 20% | -53.8% |
| 10% | -67.6% | 0% | -58.3% |
| 15% | -70.8% | 0% | -62.3% |
| 20% | -73.6% | 0% | -66.0% |