Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565c…585a sports 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$260 (-5%) realized −$301 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%165W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$64
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$259
weather 13% −$22
other 6% +$15
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +21.2% +9.7% 79% 79% +8.6%
≤30d 19 +18.9% +7.6% 74% 74% -20.1%
≤90d 245 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 56% -14.9%
all 245 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 56% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 56% -14.9%
10% -17.4% 42% -23.0%
15% -25.4% 30% -30.5%
20% -32.7% 20% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses165 / 80
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions6
Markets (closed)245 / 251
History coverage78d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 80¢ $39 $63 +$24 (+63%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 100¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$8 +79%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 28 $26 +$12 +45%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 28 $30 +$13 +44%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 27 $20 +$6 +32%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 27 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$20 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$11 +52%
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Jun 26 $40 +$20 +50%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 24 $40 +$35 +86%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Jun 16 $39 −$18 -46%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $24 +$14 +60%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 16 $253 −$148 -58%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 25 $20 +$6 +28%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $13 +$10 +76%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $89 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $10 +$11 +109%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $77 +$12 +16%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 24 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $40 +$17 +42%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Seas May 22 $11 +$8 +73%
LoL: Barça eSports vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 20 $102 +$18 +18%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 18 $45 +$52 +117%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 17 $74 $0 -0%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual May 17 $5 +$2 +46%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 17 $85 +$31 +36%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 16 $30 −$3 -11%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $61 +$18 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $23 −$17 -74%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 16 $21 +$6 +28%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier May 16 $39 +$12 +31%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 15 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 15 $125 +$45 +36%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EM May 12 $10 +$4 +39%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 12 $30 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $102 −$59 -58%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 11 $17 +$14 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $39 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 10h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 67¢ $10 14h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 69¢ $16 14h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY OpTic Texas 75¢ $20 20h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Los Angeles Thieves 69¢ $30 20h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Miami Heretics 31¢ $21 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 38h
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of BUY Miami Heretics 66¢ $40 39h
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R BUY 9z Team 53¢ $40 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 4d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $10 5d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $9 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Hugo Gaston 83¢ $10 33d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils SELL Gael Monfils 18¢ $0 33d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils SELL Gael Monfils 19¢ $5 33d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils SELL Hugo Gaston 31¢ $4 33d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Gael Monfils 69¢ $20 33d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $10 33d
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils BUY Hugo Gaston 68¢ $10 33d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 62¢ $10 33d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 62¢ $24 33d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 27¢ $26 33d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.41 · official $130.62 (match) · 703 history records