Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565c…467e crypto 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$148,860 (-650%) realized −$148,860 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%97W / 560L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day118.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,929
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-68.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 -92.4% -93.1% 4% 3% -86.8%
≤30d 657 -65.1% -68.4% 15% 10% -44.7%
≤90d 657 -65.1% -68.4% 15% 10% -44.7%
all 657 -65.1% -68.4% 15% 10% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.4% 10% -44.7%
10% ← realistic here -71.4% 8% -50.0%
15% -74.2% 7% -54.8%
20% -76.7% 6% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$36 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$148,860
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses97 / 560
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)657 / 235
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$97
Trades / day118.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 657 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 10AM ET Jun 16 $193 −$193 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 7AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 7, 8AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 11PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - September 14, 2PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 3PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 8, 4PM ET Jun 16 $890 −$890 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 2, 4AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 10AM ET Jun 16 $252 −$252 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 1PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 3AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12PM ET Jun 16 $306 −$306 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 3AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 9PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 9AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 4PM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 11AM ET Jun 16 $292 −$292 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 4AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 1AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 9AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 11PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 6AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records