Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x565a…a3e3 politics 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 65L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$12
other 27% −$6
sports 17% −$3
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 66 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage204d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $605 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $303 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $304 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $304 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $600 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $599 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $305 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $601 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $305 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $306 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $306 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $306 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $611 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 21 $306 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $306 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 17 $306 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Mar 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $306 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Mar 06 $601 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $300 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $303 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $295 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $304 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $303 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $297 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $301 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $298 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $299 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $296 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $304 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 02 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $300 20d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $119 21d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 21d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $83 21d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $301 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $301 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $301 27d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $302 28d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $302 33d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $302 34d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $302 36d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $303 37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $303 37d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $303 38d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $303 41d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $303 42d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $302 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $303 47d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 48d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 49d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $304 67d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $304 67d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $304 68d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $304 68d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $304 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $208 70d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $40 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 272 history records