Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x5657…8302 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$177 (-18%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%35W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$157
other 19% −$71
world 11% +$82
politics 9% +$3
finance 8% −$16
economics 5% −$19
crypto 4% −$19
tech 1% +$22
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 50% -41.5%
≤30d 2 -35.5% -41.7% 50% 50% -41.5%
≤90d 15 -19.5% -27.2% 33% 33% -3.4%
all 67 -7.1% -16.0% 52% 46% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -25.8%
10% -24.0% 42% -32.9%
15% -31.3% 39% -39.4%
20% -38.1% 25% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses35 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage582d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $35 +$22 +64%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 13 $45 −$24 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 13 $30 +$19 +63%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $10 +$21 +212%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 08 $15 +$46 +306%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 22 $50 +$16 +32%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 13 $5 +$7 +143%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October Nov 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 17 $10 +$4 +39%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Oct 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Sep 16 $5 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Doge ETF approved in 2025? Aug 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Arsenal end in a draw? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? May 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? May 07 $35 +$20 +56%
US recession in 2025? Apr 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Apr 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Bucks vs. Warriors Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Mar 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Flyers vs. Lightning Mar 18 $20 +$9 +43%
Canadiens vs. Kraken Mar 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Oilers vs. Sabres Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? Mar 13 $20 +$7 +37%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 10 $20 −$5 -26%
Warriors vs. Rockets Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 12 $20 +$11 +56%
Hawks vs. Magic Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Feb 10 $20 +$11 +56%
Jazz vs. Suns Feb 08 $20 +$15 +75%
Spurs vs. Hornets Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Pacers vs. Clippers Feb 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 06 $1 +$1 +89%
Hawks vs. Pistons Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Feb 03 $2 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $15 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 64d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 54¢ $14 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL No 83¢ $49 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 50¢ $30 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 77¢ $20 69d
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 71d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $35 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 84d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 151d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 151d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 152d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY No 76¢ $50 163d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 184d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 184d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 215d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 215d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 219d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110,000 and $112,000 on October BUY No 92¢ $2 231d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 233d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 24¢ $5 242d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes $2 249d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 249d
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.14 · official $22.14 (match) · 151 history records