Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5656…4e10 world 19 markets active 12h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$11
other 8% $0
sports 6% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 11 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 11 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -11.4%
all 19 -4.6% -13.7% 37% 5% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 5% -11.8%
10% -22.0% 5% -20.3%
15% -29.5% 5% -28.0%
20% -36.4% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage490d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $56 −$3 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $78 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $80 −$6 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
California vs. Louisville Mar 04 $8 −$1 -18%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 04 $19 −$11 -58%
Northwestern vs. Ohio State Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $38 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $38 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $25 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $37 25h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $41 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $37 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records