Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5654…bd59 other 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%26W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$9
other 24% −$4
politics 23% −$2
crypto 7% −$4
culture 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 202 -0.8% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses26 / 176
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)202 / 203
History coverage162d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $123 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $62 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $128 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 7d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 7d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 18d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 19d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $19 31d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $19 31d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $21 39d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $21 41d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $26 70d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $26 70d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $26 70d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $26 71d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $22 71d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $22 71d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $30 71d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $30 71d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $25 71d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 72d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $29 72d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $29 72d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $21 72d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $22 73d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $29 73d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $29 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 73d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 97¢ $25 73d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 97¢ $25 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $22 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.98 · official $24.98 (match) · 852 history records