Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5653…5d7f crypto 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+4%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%125W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$58
14 days+$54
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +3.5% -6.3% 55% 55% -5.6%
≤30d 227 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 55% -7.1%
≤90d 227 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 55% -7.1%
all 227 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 55% -7.1%
10% -16.5% 55% -16.0%
15% -24.6% 52% -24.1%
20% -32.0% 47% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses125 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions (102 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$26 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +176%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records