Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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56 0x5651…66a6 crypto 882 markets active 1h ago coverage 341d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 341d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,209 (-8%) realized −$9,420 · open +$211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate74%629W / 219L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$116
14 days+$168
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$5,512
world 12% +$403
other 11% −$1,776
politics 6% −$24
tech 2% +$402
sports 2% −$697
finance 2% −$730
economics 1% +$37
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.3% -2.0% 73% 36% -16.6%
≤30d 50 -3.3% -12.5% 74% 42% -6.0%
≤90d 234 -35.2% -41.4% 50% 26% -34.7%
all 848 -6.2% -15.1% 74% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 32% -15.6%
10% -23.3% 15% -23.7%
15% -30.7% 9% -31.1%
20% -37.5% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$91 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$2,097
Realized−$9,420
Unrealized+$211
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses629 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)848 / 882
History coverage341d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 848 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $751 $955 +$204 (+27%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 57¢ 81¢ $200 $285 +$85 (+42%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 63¢ 68¢ $110 $118 +$8 (+8%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $57 $79 +$22 (+40%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 30¢ $122 $55 −$67 (-55%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 86¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 65¢ 68¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 71¢ 28¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 46¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 46¢ 15¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-67%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $18 $3 −$15 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $110 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $212 −$204 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$49 +280%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$22 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$7 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $121 +$18 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$5 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $121 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$19 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $129 +$2 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$31 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $293 +$84 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $202 +$40 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $224 +$6 +3%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $439 +$191 +43%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 06 $26 +$8 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 04 $86 −$85 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $102 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $168 +$5 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $71 +$32 +45%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 02 $450 +$48 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $201 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $447 +$63 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $80 +$5 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $320 +$51 +16%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 22 $144 +$31 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 95¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $110 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 13h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY No 46¢ $10 14h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $62 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 27¢ $20 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $100 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $102 2d
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 51¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $18 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $64 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 44¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,097.36 · official $2,117.37 (match) · 3500 history records