Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5651…6659 politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 37% −$1
sports 12% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.5%
all 15 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage108d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $84 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $83 +$1 +2%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $83 $0 -1%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $85 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 14h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $84 14d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $84 14d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $84 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $1 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $0 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $2 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $0 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $1 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $15 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $4 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $25 27d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 38d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $84 41d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $83 41d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $83 45d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 46d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 46d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 46d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 46d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 70d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $84 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 74d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 74d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 78d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records