Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
56 0x5650…8af4 other 433 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-10%) realized −$128 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%216W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$16
sports 30% −$32
politics 6% −$18
world 4% −$14
tech 3% −$26
economics 2% −$25
culture 1% +$3
finance 1% +$2
weather 1% −$10
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.8% +14.7% 100% 80% +14.7%
≤30d 5 +26.8% +14.7% 100% 80% +14.7%
≤90d 47 +62.3% +46.9% 100% 94% +47.0%
all 378 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 54% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 54% -20.0%
10% -21.2% 50% -27.6%
15% -28.9% 42% -34.6%
20% -35.8% 34% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses216 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions55
Markets (closed)378 / 433
History coverage202d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 15 $1 $0 +35%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 24 $1 $0 +6%
Miami Open, Qualification: Ayla Aksu vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Mar 24 $1 $0 +9%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 24 $1 $0 +12%
Pacers vs. Knicks Mar 24 $1 $0 +15%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $1 $0 +19%
Trail Blazers vs. Nets Mar 24 $1 $0 +24%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 24 $1 $0 +28%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 24 $1 $0 +30%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 24 $1 $0 +32%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 24 $1 $0 +32%
Thunder vs. Magic Mar 24 $1 $0 +32%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mar 24 $1 $0 +33%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 24 $1 $0 +37%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 24 $1 $0 +37%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 24 $1 $0 +37%
Grizzlies vs. Bulls Mar 24 $1 $0 +41%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $1 $0 +45%
Wild vs. Blackhawks Mar 24 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Miami Open, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Coleman Wong Mar 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +61%
Sharks vs. Oilers Mar 24 $1 +$1 +61%
Bruins vs. Canadiens Mar 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 24 $1 +$1 +72%
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Mar 24 $1 +$1 +82%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 24 $1 +$1 +85%
Miami Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Leolia Jeanjean Mar 24 $1 +$1 +89%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +96%
Kings vs. Rangers Mar 24 $1 +$1 +96%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +129%
Miami Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Priscilla Hon Mar 24 $1 +$2 +178%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 24 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 24 $1 +$3 +270%
Miami Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Leandro Riedi Mar 24 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.19 · official $162.19 (match) · 687 history records