Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x564f…7026
other · 801 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$15,512 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,216 · open +$966
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,152
Realized+$5,216
Unrealized+$966
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses380 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions189
Markets (closed)615 / 801
History coverage44d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day66.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 189 History 615 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$583
7 days+$2,493
14 days+$2,146
30 days+$2,391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 39¢ 62¢ $610 $955 +$345 (+57%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No 69¢ 82¢ $700 $842 +$142 (+20%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 68¢ $399 $501 +$102 (+26%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $450 $468 +$18 (+4%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $350 $362 +$12 (+4%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? No 87¢ 93¢ $288 $308 +$20 (+7%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No 5¢ 18¢ $90 $305 +$215 (+240%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 90¢ $114 $298 +$184 (+161%)
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $257 $288 +$31 (+12%)
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? No 82¢ 92¢ $246 $275 +$29 (+12%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No 65¢ 84¢ $200 $257 +$57 (+29%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $183 $252 +$68 (+37%)
Will Microsoft have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? No 45¢ 12¢ $875 $234 −$641 (-73%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $215 $219 +$4 (+2%)
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 86¢ $136 $210 +$74 (+55%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $233 $204 −$29 (-12%)
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? No 57¢ 97¢ $113 $195 +$81 (+72%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $160 $185 +$25 (+16%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $355 $179 −$176 (-49%)
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 57¢ 87¢ $117 $178 +$61 (+52%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes 49¢ 81¢ $98 $163 +$65 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will App A be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$54 +961%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$12 -60%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $111 +$9 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $52 +$14 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $175 +$56 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $65 +$43 +67%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,001 +$255 +26%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 5+ times during Jun 13 $29 +$4 +15%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $105 +$3 +3%
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $240 +$5 +2%
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $150 +$4 +2%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +72%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $48 +$32 +67%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Jun 13 $56 +$17 +30%
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +84%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $116 +$12 +10%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$26 +666%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +40%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $82 +$70 +86%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$62 +152%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$30 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 47% +$3,448
other 41% +$2,518
world 4% +$176
politics 4% −$84
finance 2% +$33
crypto 2% +$79
culture 0% +$17
sports 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 54m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $58 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $101 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $66 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $108 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $39 1h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 2h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 79¢ $25 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $450 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 5h
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $208 5h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 96¢ $20 5h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 6h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 6h
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 +32.4% +19.8% 78% 34% +10.7%
≤30d 524 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 25% -3.1%
≤90d 615 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 27% +2.0%
all 615 +16.2% +5.1% 62% 27% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 27% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 20% -7.8%
15% -14.1% 16% -16.7%
20% -22.6% 13% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,151.72 · official $13,146.99 (match) · 3500 history records