Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x564b…1eef
other · 78 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$94 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage365d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 8 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-36%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $110k first? 110k 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana all time high before 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperswap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Solana reach $160 November 24-30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? 150k 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.010 before August? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Democrats 66 (D66) win 10% or more of votes in Netherlands election? No 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 +$5 +88%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $13 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Wrexham be promoted to the EPL? Feb 22 $1 $0 -9%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Feb 22 $2 $0 -4%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 22 $2 $0 +19%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Feb 22 $1 +$2 +212%
Nothing Ever Happens: February Feb 22 $2 +$3 +127%
Will Solana reach $170 November 24-30? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 November 24-30? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025? Nov 12 $1 $0 +12%
Solana all time high before 2026? Nov 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $110k first? Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA? Oct 29 $12 −$7 -59%
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Oct 29 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: D66 vs VVD Oct 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will D66 win 20 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary el Oct 28 $5 +$2 +35%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2025? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Oct 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will D66 win the fewest seats in the next Netherlands General Election Oct 25 $2 −$1 -27%
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: GL-PvdA vs CDA Oct 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Oct 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Oct 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Hyperswap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 09 $2 +$1 +53%
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? Oct 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? Sep 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Sep 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Solana reach $250 in September? Sep 21 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Jude Bellingham be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Sep 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Sep 18 $1 −$1 -66%
Democrats 66 (D66) win 10% or more of votes in Netherlands election? Sep 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? Sep 17 $1 $0 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 11 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Sep 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Sep 11 $1 $0 +8%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 11 $1 $0 +12%
US recession in 2025? Sep 11 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$25
crypto 29% −$45
world 15% −$15
politics 6% −$9
sports 4% −$3
finance 2% +$5
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 52¢ $5 25h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 20d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 20d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26d
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 26d
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26d
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26d
Will Wrexham be promoted to the EPL? SELL No 82¢ $1 110d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 110d
Nothing Ever Happens: February BUY Something 44¢ $2 129d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 129d
Will Solana reach $170 November 24-30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 198d
Will Solana reach $160 November 24-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 198d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 212d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +88.4% +70.4% 100% 100% +70.4%
≤30d 5 -41.4% -46.9% 40% 20% -43.4%
≤90d 5 -41.4% -46.9% 40% 20% -43.4%
all 70 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 27% -49.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 27% -49.4%
10% -41.4% 19% -54.3%
15% -47.1% 16% -58.7%
20% -52.3% 11% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.35 · official $33.35 (match) · 143 history records