Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x564a…af9b
world · 461 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$141 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$115 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses183 / 222
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions57
Markets (closed)405 / 461
History coverage125d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 57 History 405 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 74¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+64%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 79¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 50¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 52¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 61¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-25%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 21¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 85¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 61¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +45%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 −$3 -25%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +45%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +45%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 +$2 +117%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$7 +158%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -41%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% −$34
other 22% +$43
sports 11% −$108
politics 8% −$13
tech 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$3
economics 1% −$5
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 9m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 51m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 36¢ $1 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $4 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $1 3h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY No 40¢ $4 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $2 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 6h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 9h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $3 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.1% -3.1% 55% 37% -9.3%
≤30d 168 +4.5% -5.4% 51% 35% -7.6%
≤90d 258 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 27% -9.9%
all 405 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 23% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 23% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 20% -19.7%
15% -26.0% 17% -27.4%
20% -33.3% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.09 · official $173.82 (match) · 3500 history records