Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x564a…8871 weather 745 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$927 (+2%) realized +$922 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%672W / 36L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day168.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$93
14 days+$336
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 708 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 708 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 0% -8.8%
all 708 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 0% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$1,372
Realized+$922
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses672 / 36
Open positions37
Markets (closed)708 / 745
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day168.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? No 97¢ 99¢ $134 $137 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $67 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $54 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 16? No 98¢ 96¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June 16? No 98¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $140 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 15 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 15 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16? Jun 15 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 15 $136 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $162 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $217 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $126 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 96°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $70 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $21 4m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 9m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $4 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $48 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 31m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $21 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $50 52m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $59 52m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $25 53m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $106 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,371.73 · official $1,371.73 (match) · 3500 history records