Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5648…a6c4
other · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$747 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$657 · open −$132
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,667
Realized−$657
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 33
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions13
Markets (closed)41 / 54
History coverage197d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 13 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$780
7 days−$630
14 days−$630
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1,725 $1,427 −$298 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $689 $861 +$172 (+25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $74 $86 +$12 (+16%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan China 29¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $72 +$340 +474%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $568 +$712 +125%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 20 $56 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 20 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 20 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Feb 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 20 $50 +$43 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Jan 20 $266 +$84 +32%
Spread: Arsenal (-1.5) Dec 07 $250 +$11 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 05 $40 −$8 -20%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Dec 04 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Dec 04 $54 +$127 +233%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Nov 30 $48 +$56 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$1,059
sports 30% +$332
crypto 17% −$54
economics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $46 6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 6h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 9h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 9h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 10h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 12h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 12h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $72 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 29h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $154 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -59.0% -62.9% 7% 7% -64.2%
≤30d 21 -61.9% -65.6% 10% 10% -16.8%
≤90d 24 -62.6% -66.2% 8% 8% -31.9%
all 41 -48.5% -53.4% 20% 17% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.4% 17% -26.3%
10% -57.8% 17% -33.3%
15% -61.9% 15% -39.8%
20% -65.6% 15% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,666.57 · official $2,666.79 (match) · 114 history records