Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5640…1846 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$278 (+1%) realized +$134 · open +$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%107W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$114
other 4% +$163
politics 1% +$11
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 79 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 111 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$539) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.02 per $1 lost it wins $6.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$821
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$144
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses107 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage749d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $563 $563 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $108 $251 +$143 (+132%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 75¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $562 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $561 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $559 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $558 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $557 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $556 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $554 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $551 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $551 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $547 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $547 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $544 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $543 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $542 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $539 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $537 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $537 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 08 $534 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $350 +$12 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $497 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $160 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 04 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $516 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $512 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $512 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $511 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $511 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $510 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $510 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $509 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $563 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $562 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $561 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $560 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $559 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $559 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $558 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $557 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $556 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $554 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $553 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $551 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $551 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $550 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $547 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $547 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $546 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $546 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $545 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $544 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $543 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $543 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $542 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $541 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $540 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $539 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $539 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $537 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $821.02 · official $821.02 (match) · 268 history records