Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x563c…7a82 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$177 (+0%) realized +$178 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%18W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,843per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$33
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$75
politics 16% +$42
economics 16% +$40
other 7% +$4
crypto 5% +$16
finance 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 18 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,262) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$2,316
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses18 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,843
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,379 $1,378 −$1 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $608 $608 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $176 $176 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 +$0 (+0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 26 $2,306 +$10 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $2,304 +$2 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,295 +$5 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2,278 +$16 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,262 +$16 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $2,256 +$7 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2,254 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $2,252 +$2 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $2,233 +$18 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 13 $2,220 +$14 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $2,207 +$13 +1%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 05 $2,202 +$4 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $2,198 +$4 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $2,182 +$15 +1%
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this Apr 20 $2,178 +$4 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $2,165 +$13 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $2,143 +$22 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $2,135 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,379 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $176 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $608 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,111 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $592 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $249 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,304 9d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,228 10d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,067 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $2,278 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,262 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $159 34d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1,329 34d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $768 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 100¢ $2,254 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,252 41d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $478 45d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $1,754 45d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,267 46d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,315.91 · official $2,315.91 (match) · 64 history records