Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
56 0x5639…bbd9 sports 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$24 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%59W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$4
other 39% −$2
economics 8% −$7
world 4% −$4
politics 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 44% -12.6%
≤30d 16 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 44% -12.6%
≤90d 39 +2.1% -7.6% 69% 44% -10.9%
all 98 -11.0% -19.5% 60% 42% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 42% -18.1%
10% -27.2% 29% -25.9%
15% -34.2% 13% -33.1%
20% -40.7% 8% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses59 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage214d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+96%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 18 $2 $0 +3%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $2 $0 +6%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 05 $1 $0 +8%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 05 $1 $0 +10%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 05 $2 $0 +8%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 05 $2 $0 +8%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 05 $2 $0 +10%
Bucks vs. Suns Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 02 $2 +$1 +45%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 02 $2 +$2 +104%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $1 +$1 +52%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 29 $2 +$1 +28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $5 $0 +1%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 26 $2 +$1 +30%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 24 $1 $0 +30%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $1 $0 +27%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 22 $2 $0 +25%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 21 $1 $0 +22%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 21 $3 $0 +16%
Spurs vs. Kings Mar 18 $3 $0 +10%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bulls vs. Suns Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-12-20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Mar 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Thunder vs. Bulls Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.38 · official $33.38 (match) · 217 history records