Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5637…21f4 weather 685 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (253 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11,583 (-3%) realized −$11,531 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%639W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$591per market
Trades / day252.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32,166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,547
other 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (253 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 460 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 640 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 1% -8.7%
≤90d 640 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 1% -8.7%
all 640 +8.9% -1.5% 100% 1% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 1% -8.7%
10% -10.9% 1% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -19.5% 1% -25.4%
20% -27.4% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$49 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×72.39 per $1 lost it wins $72.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$32,166
Realized−$11,531
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses639 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions47
Markets (closed)640 / 685
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$591
Trades / day252.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,401 $5,408 +$7 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,996 $4,002 +$7 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,006 $3,008 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,978 $2,980 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,498 $2,499 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,997 $1,999 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,600 $1,602 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,185 $1,187 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $998 $1,000 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $624 $625 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $578 $600 +$21 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $570 $570 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $496 $497 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $397 $398 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $376 $376 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $349 $350 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $341 $341 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $303 $303 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $271 $271 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $270 $270 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $264 $264 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $234 $234 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4,275 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on June 16? Jun 17 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1,855 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $322 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1,095 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,049 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,255 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $372 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $477 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $969 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $388 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,047 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $325 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,266 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $537 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $63 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $950 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,207 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $204 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $711 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 16? Jun 16 $990 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $613 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $724 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 69°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 1m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $995 10m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $148 19m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $348 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 30m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $92 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 41m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 49m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $92 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $269 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $492 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $182 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $279 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $124 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,166.11 · official $32,169.46 (match) · 3500 history records