Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5635…4ba2 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$12
other 27% +$1
politics 9% −$2
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 42 +28.8% +16.6% 36% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 5% -8.2%
10% +5.4% 5% -17.0%
15% -4.8% 2% -25.0%
20% -14.1% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.94 per $1 lost it wins $2.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage386d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -19%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 24 $1 +$14 +1289%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 08 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 05 $21 +$1 +4%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 04 $1 $0 -5%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $37 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 23h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $7 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $6 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $38 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $43 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $43 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $43 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $9 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $18 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.25 · official $3.70 (match) · 162 history records