Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5633…cd82
weather · 653 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$790 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$775 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,986
Realized+$775
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses631 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)642 / 653
History coverage51d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 642 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$194
14 days+$355
30 days+$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,449 $1,455 +$6 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $845 $845 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $673 $674 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $552 $556 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $549 $550 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $493 $493 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $431 $431 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $383 $383 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $301 $301 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $283 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $211 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $445 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $629 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $870 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $610 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $723 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $734 +$40 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,048 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on Jun 12 $851 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $450 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,105 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $251 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $467 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,849 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $697 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $601 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $683 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $332 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 11 $851 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,854 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $662 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $434 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1,365 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3,704 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $394 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1,165 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $381 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $553 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $999 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$790
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $493 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $814 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $319 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $91 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $107 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $235 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $174 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $845 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $198 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $356 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $340 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $301 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $65 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $474 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $31 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 432 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 642 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 642 +0.1% -9.5% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,985.65 · official $5,985.65 (match) · 2125 history records