Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5632…ebbe crypto 495 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,680 (-8%) realized −$1,609 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%217W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$732now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$33
14 days−$102
30 days−$3,193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$3,177
other 4% +$4
sports 2% −$142
world 1% −$149
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.9% +23.0% 50% 50% +48.7%
≤30d 456 -24.7% -31.9% 47% 41% -25.3%
≤90d 481 -26.3% -33.3% 45% 40% -25.9%
all 481 -26.3% -33.3% 45% 40% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 40% -25.9%
10% -39.7% 34% -33.0%
15% -45.5% 25% -39.5%
20% -50.9% 16% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$732
Realized−$1,609
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses217 / 264
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions14
Markets (closed)481 / 495
History coverage68d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $193 $150 −$43 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $110 $88 −$22 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $60 $86 +$26 (+43%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 210 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$8 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $30 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$20 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $14 +$11 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $29 −$28 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $31 1h
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 8d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $75 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $732.10 · official $732.41 (match) · 1420 history records