Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5631…bd3a sports 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$934 (+4%) realized +$1,057 · open −$123
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%212W / 186L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$879
other 35% +$120
tech 6% −$12
politics 5% +$5
crypto 5% −$58
world 3% +$3
economics 1% −$90
culture 1% +$45
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +41.3% +27.9% 75% 75% +3.2%
≤30d 5 +13.1% +2.3% 60% 60% -21.4%
≤90d 103 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -16.3%
all 398 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 46% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 46% -5.9%
10% -15.7% 45% -14.9%
15% -23.9% 43% -23.1%
20% -31.3% 40% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$32 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1,057
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses212 / 186
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)398 / 401
History coverage264d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$61 +120%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 +$24 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $67 +$50 +75%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $79 −$78 -99%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $45 +$32 +70%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 17 $83 +$88 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 14 $25 +$28 +110%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $119 −$117 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 13 $28 −$28 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $25 −$25 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 09 $50 −$50 -99%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $25 +$11 +42%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score May 09 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $25 +$16 +65%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5 May 09 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $61 +$38 +62%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 07 $51 +$60 +119%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 07 $101 +$71 +70%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $51 +$69 +136%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? May 04 $25 +$33 +129%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score May 03 $25 +$16 +62%
Juventus FC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
CD Castellón vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 2.5 May 02 $25 +$33 +128%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 02 $15 +$19 +127%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $25 +$25 +99%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $25 +$21 +83%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $25 +$10 +40%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $25 +$23 +90%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 30 $51 +$37 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $34 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $56 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $3 2d
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 57¢ $29 25d
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 59¢ $51 25d
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 31d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $44 32d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 32d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 57¢ $51 32d
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 32d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 48¢ $83 34d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 34d
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 34d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 34d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $28 35d
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 35d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $25 38d
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 38d
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 39d
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 39d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 39d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Joel Álvarez 38¢ $51 39d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 23¢ $6 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.46 · official $40.46 (match) · 755 history records