Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
56 0x5630…de7f sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$988 (+23%) realized +$995 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$842per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$671
sports 17% +$126
crypto 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +32.9%
≤30d 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +32.9%
≤90d 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +32.9%
all 3 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 67% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 67% +32.9%
10% -9.5% 67% +20.2%
15% -18.3% 67% +8.6%
20% -26.3% 67% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$501 vs −$200 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.01 per $1 lost it wins $5.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized+$995
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$842
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $250 $244 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $506 +$326 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,005 +$676 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 9h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 9h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,918 11h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,987 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,681 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,005 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.78 · official $492.78 (match) · 10 history records