Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:05:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5630…6ca8 sports 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$977 (+1%) realized +$971 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%130W / 97L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$694est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$261
14 days−$601
30 days−$668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$249
other 3% +$284
world 1% −$59
crypto 1% −$158
politics 0% +$134
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% +$14
economics 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 38% -22.8%
≤30d 35 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 37% -33.5%
≤90d 146 +2.4% -7.3% 55% 45% -10.6%
all 227 -1.0% -10.4% 57% 42% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 42% -9.1%
10% -19.0% 26% -17.8%
15% -26.8% 17% -25.7%
20% -34.0% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$516) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$109 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$971
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses130 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$694
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 232
History coverage245d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 92¢ 95¢ $140 $146 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $116 +$25 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $89 +$27 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $231 −$143 -62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $175 +$57 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 −$54 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $126 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $310 −$21 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $100 +$13 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $150 +$15 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $62 −$62 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $76 +$14 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +588%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $56 +$6 +11%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $115 −$3 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $57 +$14 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 12 $60 −$34 -57%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $98 −$37 -38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $12 +$6 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$4 +203%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $2 $0 -12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $217 −$66 -31%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $32 +$68 +216%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 10 $1,252 −$816 -65%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $643 +$123 +19%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $214 −$115 -54%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $373 +$64 +17%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $487 +$19 +4%
T20 Series Malta vs Gibraltar: Malta vs Gibraltar May 08 $716 +$65 +9%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $102 +$48 +47%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $292 −$110 -38%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $133 −$47 -36%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $1,170 +$239 +20%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $202 +$125 +62%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $1,542 −$137 -9%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $54 +$76 +140%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $489 +$92 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $73 24m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $67 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $116 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $89 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $88 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $231 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $175 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $97 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $27 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $15 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $6 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 44h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 27¢ $10 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 55¢ $20 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $4 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $7 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $4 46h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 99¢ $185 47h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 95¢ $191 47h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 89¢ $13 47h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 85¢ $88 47h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 68¢ $10 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 72¢ $7 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 72¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.64 · official $145.87 (match) · 1721 history records