Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x5630…7574 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+2%) realized +$395 · open −$351
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$142
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.0% -13.2% 43% 43% +32.5%
≤30d 14 -4.0% -13.2% 43% 43% +32.5%
≤90d 14 -4.0% -13.2% 43% 43% +32.5%
all 14 -4.0% -13.2% 43% 43% +32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 43% +32.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 36% +19.8%
15% -29.1% 36% +8.3%
20% -36.0% 29% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$16 · ×6.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.97 per $1 lost it wins $4.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$823
Realized+$395
Unrealized−$351
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 15¢ 8¢ $989 $556 −$433 (-44%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 40¢ 92¢ $98 $226 +$128 (+131%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 87¢ 100¢ $35 $41 +$5 (+15%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $231 +$234 +101%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $116 +$235 +204%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $160 +$73 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $280 −$64 -23%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $143 −$4 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 $0 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $11 +$11 +100%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $62 +$62 +101%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 11¢ $579 20m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $1 29m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $340 29m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $92 29m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $5 33m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $3 33m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $23 33m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $21 33m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 41¢ $105 38m
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 91¢ $27 53m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $15 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 88¢ $43 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 88¢ $56 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $4 1h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 35¢ $98 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $26 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $7 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $6 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 59¢ $6 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 74¢ $1 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $2 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 74¢ $5 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $4 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 74¢ $9 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 29¢ $6 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $16 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $822.89 · official $822.89 (match) · 74 history records