Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5630…a29b crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$154 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day79.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$484
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -14.0% -22.2% 31% 27% -25.0%
≤30d 98 -13.5% -21.8% 32% 28% -21.8%
≤90d 98 -13.5% -21.8% 32% 28% -21.8%
all 98 -13.5% -21.8% 32% 28% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 28% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 21% -29.3%
15% -36.1% 17% -36.1%
20% -42.3% 12% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 67
Open positions10
Markets (closed)98 / 108
History coverage14d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day79.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 57¢ 68¢ $128 $152 +$23 (+18%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 41¢ 92¢ $55 $122 +$67 (+121%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 31¢ 32¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 38¢ 94¢ $21 $52 +$31 (+144%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 35¢ 50¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+40%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 53¢ 8¢ $99 $16 −$83 (-84%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 31¢ 6¢ $35 $7 −$27 (-79%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 59¢ 48¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 30¢ 8¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$31 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+57%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $65 −$4 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$26 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$6 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$7 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $188 −$42 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$77 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $141 −$2 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +136%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$4 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $148 −$110 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $129 −$39 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$6 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$5 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$12 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $266 −$18 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$14 -65%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$30 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$10 -42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$15 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$3 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$11 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$13 +118%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$4 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$39 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $75 −$22 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$2 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$8 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$22 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$25 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$12 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$21 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $440.51 · official $484.63 · 1188 history records