Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
56 0x562f…e46f sports 383 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,497 (-1%) realized −$7,521 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%369W / 12L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$2,053per market
Trades / day111.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$10,677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,215
crypto 26% +$339
sports 25% +$1,093
politics 1% +$2
tech 1% +$6
finance 1% +$8
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 2% -9.1%
≤30d 381 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 381 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.2%
all 381 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 1% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,995) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.08 per $1 lost it wins $10.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$10,677
Realized−$7,521
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses369 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)381 / 383
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$2,053
Trades / day111.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $9,678 $9,694 +$16 (+0%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $976 $983 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $962 +$1 +0%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 16 $73 −$16 -22%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $241 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $1,657 +$23 +1%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3,218 +$33 +1%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1,779 +$2 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43,369 +$347 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,750 +$38 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5,038 +$51 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7,190 +$14 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +79%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10,806 +$101 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11,244 +$26 +0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,275 +$21 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $136,002 +$294 +0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,910 +$100 +1%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $441 +$9 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $993 +$7 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $259 +$3 +1%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1,651 +$14 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $390 +$4 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8,222 +$83 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,242 +$21 +0%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,232 +$10 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $4,135 +$8 +0%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2,157 +$21 +1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $3,873 +$39 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,994 +$6 +0%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6,080 +$12 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6,024 +$55 +1%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $4,563 +$13 +0%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $1,428 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11,964 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,402 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,345 +$2 +0%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $5,994 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,153 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $103 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 10 $48 +$1 +1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $1,774 +$18 +1%
Sweden vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $0 $0 +1%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 09 $316 $0 +0%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $497 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $4 28m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $972 28m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $499 30m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $499 31m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $6,938 34m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,557 35m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 35m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $37 38m
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $147 39m
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 59¢ $58 1h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $956 4h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $231 8h
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,471 8h
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,380 13h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 75¢ $73 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $116 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $128 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $1,535 23h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $94 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,479 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $434 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,677.07 · official $10,677.07 (match) · 3500 history records