Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
56 0x562b…dc09 other 735 markets active 5h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,028 (+6%) realized +$17,085 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate90%563W / 62L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$27,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$381
7 days+$2,541
14 days+$3,357
30 days+$3,724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$7,176
culture 28% +$5,167
tech 11% +$2,004
sports 10% +$1,598
politics 1% −$21
world 1% +$21
crypto 1% +$97
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.8% -12.1% 86% 20% +4.3%
≤30d 266 +4.1% -5.8% 88% 9% -5.1%
≤90d 625 +25.0% +13.1% 90% 11% -4.3%
all 625 +25.0% +13.1% 90% 11% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.1% 11% -4.3%
10% ← realistic here +2.3% 7% -13.5%
15% -7.6% 6% -21.8%
20% -16.7% 4% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$58 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.55 per $1 lost it wins $5.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$27,446
Realized+$17,085
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses563 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions118
Markets (closed)625 / 735
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$399
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 118 History 625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,172 $2,159 −$14 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $1,360 $1,956 +$596 (+44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $1,728 $1,716 −$12 (-1%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k? No 91¢ 100¢ $1,516 $1,660 +$144 (+9%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $1,143 $1,076 −$68 (-6%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 82¢ 90¢ $928 $1,015 +$87 (+9%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 76¢ $947 $852 −$96 (-10%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No 52¢ 33¢ $1,325 $845 −$479 (-36%)
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $672 $672 −$0 (-0%)
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 73¢ $706 $651 −$55 (-8%)
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $595 $620 +$25 (+4%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $547 $518 −$28 (-5%)
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? No 66¢ 60¢ $529 $486 −$43 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 75¢ 68¢ $535 $478 −$56 (-11%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 87¢ 92¢ $426 $449 +$23 (+5%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? No 70¢ 99¢ $310 $440 +$130 (+42%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 84¢ 91¢ $404 $438 +$34 (+9%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $405 $418 +$13 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 52¢ $360 $410 +$50 (+14%)
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 77¢ 78¢ $380 $385 +$5 (+1%)
Will Iran be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 54¢ 72¢ $289 $383 +$94 (+32%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 66¢ $372 $377 +$5 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $353 $358 +$5 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 80¢ $343 $343 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 30¢ $416 $325 −$91 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $135 +$39 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $345 +$84 +24%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $1,425 +$4 +0%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? Jun 16 $428 $0 +0%
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? Jun 16 $509 +$9 +2%
Will between 13 and 15 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 202 Jun 16 $688 +$239 +35%
Will the No. 43 Inter Europol Competition win the LMP2 class at the 20 Jun 15 $289 +$1 +0%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 15 $499 +$1 +0%
Will "Maid of Honor - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the wee Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
Will "BROWN - Chris Brown" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Will "GREENGREEN - CORTIS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will "The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean" be the Billboard 200 #1 album f Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Knockouts O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $175 +$1 +0%
Will 3+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $181 +$4 +2%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $365 −$6 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,758 +$2,092 +36%
Will Jalen Brunson score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA Fin Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $627 +$365 +58%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will it rain in Denver on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will it rain in Boston on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will "Fiona Apple" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will "Lorde" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $130 $0 +0%
Will "Phoebe Bridgers" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Hayley Williams" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $330 +$2 +0%
Will "Billie Eilish" be featured on Olivia Rodrigo's new album? Jun 12 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31? Jun 12 $913 +$323 +35%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $833 −$833 -100%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 12 $124 −$1 -1%
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? Jun 12 $224 $0 +0%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $698 +$129 +18%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz? Jun 11 $596 +$209 +35%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $69 +$17 +25%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $115 4h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $81 4h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $114 4h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $107 4h
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 7h
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in BUY Yes 44¢ $29 7h
Will Europe (UEFA) score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $43 7h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL No 100¢ $6 25h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 1 song in Billboard top 10 for week of June 2 BUY No 99¢ $99 32h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 1 song in Billboard top 10 for week of June 2 BUY No 98¢ $15 32h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have no songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June BUY No 99¢ $39 32h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 1 song in Billboard top 10 for week of June 2 BUY No 98¢ $91 32h
Will between 13 and 15 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 202 SELL No 99¢ $339 35h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 35h
Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the A SELL No 99¢ $26 36h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 37h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 37h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 37h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 37h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 99¢ $113 37h
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? BUY Yes 98¢ $287 37h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL No 100¢ $6 41h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 40¢ $95 41h
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 3 weeks? BUY No 100¢ $428 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Knockouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $70 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Knockouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $88 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Knockouts O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $17 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? BUY Yes 99¢ $331 2d
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $138 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,445.50 · official $27,445.71 (match) · 3500 history records