Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5627…a5bb world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
other 32% −$2
culture 5% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 35 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -8.9%
10% -20.6% 3% -17.6%
15% -28.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage476d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 96¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $17 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 31 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $20 $0 +1%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross more than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $22 $0 +0%
UConn vs. Providence Mar 20 $16 +$6 +39%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 01 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $25 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $17 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $37 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.80 · official $37.54 (match) · 94 history records