Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5622…a3c4 crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-8%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$73
world 3% −$10
other 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 38% -20.2%
≤30d 65 -44.2% -49.5% 25% 20% -31.5%
≤90d 65 -44.2% -49.5% 25% 20% -31.5%
all 148 -21.4% -28.9% 41% 34% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 34% -17.4%
10% -35.7% 27% -25.3%
15% -41.9% 18% -32.5%
20% -47.6% 15% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)148 / 153
History coverage101d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +63%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$7 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 27 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 27 $19 +$43 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 10m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 13m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 19m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.65 · official $7.65 (match) · 320 history records