Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
56 0x561f…e7f9 crypto 1661 markets active 7d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$659 (+4%) realized +$659 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%1079W / 582L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$3
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$500
other 3% −$59
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.6% +1.8% 62% 62% +4.1%
≤30d 630 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 57% -11.9%
≤90d 1661 -0.1% -9.7% 65% 55% -8.8%
all 1661 -0.1% -9.7% 65% 55% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 55% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 43% -17.5%
15% -26.2% 27% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 18% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$659
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1079 / 582
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1661 / 1661
History coverage79d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1661 Trades
no open positions (320 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$12 +220%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 03 $6 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$17 +302%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $6 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $6 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $23 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3392 history records