Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x561e…c991 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$386 (-23%) realized −$79 · open −$307
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$226
sports 3% −$31
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% +0.7%
≤30d 21 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% +0.7%
≤90d 21 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% +0.7%
all 21 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 33% +0.7%
10% -44.9% 33% -8.9%
15% -50.2% 33% -17.7%
20% -55.1% 24% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$18 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$726
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$307
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage10d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1,033 $726 −$307 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 +$195 +182%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$54 +188%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$38 +74%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$51 -33%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 19h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 44h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $103 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $106 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $725.80 · official $726.82 (match) · 50 history records