Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x561d…4134 sports 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-1%) realized −$183 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%170W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$244est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days+$9
14 days−$316
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$377
crypto 1% −$2
other 1% −$9
world 0% +$3
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 48% -9.4%
≤30d 285 +9.7% -0.8% 58% 52% -12.0%
≤90d 291 +9.1% -1.3% 58% 52% -12.1%
all 291 +9.1% -1.3% 58% 52% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 52% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 46% -20.5%
15% -19.4% 41% -28.2%
20% -27.3% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$56 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses170 / 121
Est. fees paid−$244
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage33d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Oriol Roca Batalla 31¢ 26¢ $148 $122 −$26 (-17%)
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Florian Broska 29¢ 36¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Conor Gannon $25 $23 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $191 +$259 +136%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $158 +$262 +165%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $71 −$71 -99%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $52 +$94 +180%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $81 +$69 +85%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $185 +$317 +172%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $317 −$315 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $291 +$239 +82%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $208 +$192 +92%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $138 −$137 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $560 −$558 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $51 +$49 +96%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $153 −$152 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $122 +$94 +78%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $137 −$137 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $495 +$404 +82%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $138 +$212 +154%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $148 −$147 -99%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $95 +$130 +137%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $172 +$117 +68%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $49 +$81 +163%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $87 −$85 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $62 −$61 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $253 +$16 +6%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $46 +$94 +203%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $36 +$99 +277%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $56 +$71 +125%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $48 +$102 +212%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $75 +$143 +191%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $115 +$85 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $127 −$102 -80%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $136 −$135 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $120 +$56 +47%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $95 −$94 -99%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $43 +$18 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 24¢ $53 53m
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 38¢ $95 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 29¢ $51 1h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 29¢ $51 2h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon $26 2h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 41¢ $112 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 30¢ $75 11h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 58¢ $116 11h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 18¢ $35 17h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 18¢ $1 17h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 36¢ $54 17h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 30¢ $60 17h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 42¢ $58 18h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 32¢ $70 18h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 42¢ $3 18h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 42¢ $2 18h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 42¢ $0 18h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 44¢ $84 18h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 37¢ $102 19h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 24¢ $41 19h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 44¢ $4 19h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch $15 19h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 28¢ $42 20h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 28¢ $1 20h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 28¢ $12 20h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 25¢ $46 21h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Marco Cecchinato 100¢ $502 21h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 35¢ $52 21h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 39¢ $78 21h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 38¢ $76 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.16 · official $265.16 (match) · 1037 history records