Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x561b…7d96 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$89 (-26%) realized −$88 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$90
sports 37% $0
crypto 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +24.9% +13.0% 17% 17% -5.0%
≤30d 6 +24.9% +13.0% 17% 17% -5.0%
≤90d 18 -16.5% -24.4% 22% 17% -41.5%
all 18 -16.5% -24.4% 22% 17% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 17% -41.5%
10% -31.7% 17% -47.1%
15% -38.3% 17% -52.2%
20% -44.3% 17% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage33d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Smouha SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $23 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw? May 20 $15 −$2 -12%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 12h
Will Smouha SC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 31d
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes $1 31d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 16¢ $3 31d
Will Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 31d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 31d
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 31d
Will Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 31d
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 31d
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 31d
Will Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 31d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 32d
Will Smouha SC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes $2 32d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 32d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 32d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $15 32d
Will Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 32d
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.19 · official $74.19 (match) · 33 history records