Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5618…6ae9 crypto 1607 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,560 (-91%) realized −$5,565 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%1046W / 584L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day79.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$163
other 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -1.4% -10.8% 64% 64% -10.0%
≤30d 1630 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 64% -11.9%
≤90d 1630 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 64% -11.9%
all 1630 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 64% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 64% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 57% -20.3%
15% -28.9% 40% -28.0%
20% -35.9% 25% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$5,565
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1046 / 584
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1630 / 1607
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day79.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11? Jun 15 $22 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 7°C on May 11? Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 11? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on May 10? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 11? Jun 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 11? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11? Jun 15 $8 +$6 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 11? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +123%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 10? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 11? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 11? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +79%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 11? Jun 15 $5 −$11 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? Jun 15 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? Jun 15 $17 −$35 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10? Jun 15 $14 −$29 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11? Jun 15 $15 −$31 -200%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +197%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.40 · official $211.03 (match) · 3500 history records