Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
56 0x5618…f2c0 sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 721d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,171 (+16%) realized +$2,197 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%38W / 40L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,629
7 days+$1,629
14 days+$1,629
30 days+$1,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1,493
other 16% +$716
politics 10% −$39
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +96.5% +77.8% 74% 70% +64.6%
≤30d 23 +96.5% +77.8% 74% 70% +64.6%
≤90d 37 +63.2% +47.6% 62% 59% +28.7%
all 78 +24.0% +12.2% 49% 44% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 44% +5.2%
10% +1.5% 41% -4.8%
15% -8.3% 35% -14.0%
20% -17.3% 31% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$59 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,197
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses38 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage721d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 44¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$15 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $274 +$52 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $166 −$20 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 −$13 -24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $57 −$10 -18%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $77 +$223 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 +$116 +189%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $77 +$58 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $216 +$66 +30%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 +$560 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $231 +$184 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $135 +$267 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 +$54 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $135 +$87 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $35 +$65 +189%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $73 +$51 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $13 +$7 +50%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
CD Unión La Calera vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $180 −$32 -18%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $176 +$112 +63%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $42 −$10 -23%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $179 −$43 -24%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $448 +$266 +59%
FC Hermannstadt vs. FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $445 −$437 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $57 −$2 -3%
FK Kolos Kovalivka vs. SK Poltava: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $37 −$5 -14%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $48 +$59 +121%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $300 +$299 +100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $126 +$30 +24%
Millonarios FC vs. CD Tolima: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $56 +$40 +72%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $46 −$18 -40%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $253 −$17 -7%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 15 $231 −$231 -100%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $8 +$4 +56%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $312 +$175 +56%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $169 +$50 +30%
Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $135 +$130 +96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $434 −$434 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 14 $480 +$319 +66%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $497 +$233 +47%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5 Mar 14 $6 +$5 +88%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Mar 14 $432 +$467 +108%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Dec 30 $698 −$698 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Dec 30 $802 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 44¢ $27 18m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 64¢ $28 19m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 67¢ $70 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $16 33m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $28 47m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $109 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $70 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $126 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 62¢ $28 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 22¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $27 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $92 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $58 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $193 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $60 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $66 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $43 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $87 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $46 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $56 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $104 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $28 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $35 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 264 history records