Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
56 0x5617…38fc other 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+0%) realized +$125 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%139W / 57L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$120
14 days+$220
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$54
sports 3% +$208
world 2% −$8
crypto 0% −$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 40% -7.6%
≤30d 46 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 48% -7.7%
≤90d 105 +0.3% -9.2% 68% 42% -9.0%
all 196 -0.6% -10.1% 71% 41% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 41% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 41% -18.0%
15% -26.5% 36% -25.9%
20% -33.7% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$36 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses139 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage241d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 61¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $42 +$30 +72%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$2 -5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $46 +$29 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 −$10 -26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$35 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,533 +$17 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 +$20 +128%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 +$27 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$30 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$10 -21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 +$4 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 +$33 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 −$11 -41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $46 +$34 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 +$19 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $61 +$28 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $42 +$28 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 +$37 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,298 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $40 +$26 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $62 +$20 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $40 −$17 -41%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $46 +$29 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $57 +$26 +46%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 24 $55 +$20 +36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,998 +$2 +0%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 23 $40 +$19 +48%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $51 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $42 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $51 10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 39¢ $15 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 32h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $26 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $46 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $30 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,498 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $28 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $41 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,498 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $30 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $6 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $43 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $16 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $36 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.80 · official $100.80 (match) · 465 history records