Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
56 0x5617…a160 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$386 (+16%) realized +$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +31.5% +19.0% 79% 79% +32.2%
≤30d 19 +31.5% +19.0% 79% 79% +32.2%
≤90d 19 +31.5% +19.0% 79% 79% +32.2%
all 19 +31.5% +19.0% 79% 79% +32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 79% +32.2%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 68% +19.6%
15% -2.8% 68% +8.0%
20% -12.3% 42% -2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$31 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.97 per $1 lost it wins $9.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$31 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $180 +$111 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $380 +$279 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$130 +84%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $180 +$131 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$70 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$70 -55%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $154 +$89 +58%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$5 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$22 +41%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$5 -14%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$34 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$50 +49%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $126 −$23 -18%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $255 +$99 +39%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $180 +$124 +69%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$55 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $16 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records