Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x5615…aafe
other · 40 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage381d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $47 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $49 −$2 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $28 +$1 +5%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Jul 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $24 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -55%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Canada raise tariffs on the U.S. before June? Jun 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% +$2
world 37% +$2
politics 10% −$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $13 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $22 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $10 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $10 11h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $7 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $9 40h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $49 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $49 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 11% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 8% -9.0%
all 40 -0.1% -9.7% 48% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.3% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records