Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5615…8e04 crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$5
sports 3% −$1
world 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.7% -28.3% 20% 20% -35.8%
≤30d 5 -20.7% -28.3% 20% 20% -35.8%
≤90d 13 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 31% -26.9%
all 102 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 27% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 27% -12.6%
10% -31.2% 23% -20.9%
15% -37.8% 17% -28.6%
20% -43.9% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage120d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 18 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 18 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 18 $6 $0 +8%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 18 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 18 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 18 $2 +$9 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 17 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 17 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 02 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 01 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 01 $4 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 26 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 296 history records