Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5610…8acb other 135 markets active 3d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$12
politics 22% −$6
world 17% −$3
crypto 13% −$1
tech 8% −$36
economics 7% −$1
sports 6% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 55 -2.6% -11.9% 16% 0% -11.9%
all 134 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage221d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO May 26 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 21 $62 $0 +0%
Human moon landing in 2026? May 20 $62 −$7 -12%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 12 $25 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Stripe’s market cap be $140B or greater at market close on IPO da May 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April? Apr 23 $33 −$7 -21%
Will Google dip to $220 in April? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $34 $0 -0%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7? Mar 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Mar 29 $34 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 27 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $26 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 14d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $26 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $26 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 99¢ $26 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO SELL No 98¢ $26 22d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $27 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $27 24d
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead BUY No 100¢ $27 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 26d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO SELL No 98¢ $26 26d
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $27 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 319 history records