Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x560e…158e sports 308 markets active 9h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$471 (-21%) realized −$471 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%78W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$34
14 days−$267
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$473
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -11.9% -20.3% 26% 26% -19.7%
≤30d 308 -15.7% -23.8% 25% 25% -28.9%
≤90d 308 -15.7% -23.8% 25% 25% -28.9%
all 308 -15.7% -23.8% 25% 25% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 25% -28.9%
10% -31.1% 25% -35.7%
15% -37.7% 24% -41.9%
20% -43.8% 24% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses78 / 230
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 308
History coverage23d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions (226 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 +$4 +160%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $3 +$8 +291%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $3 +$5 +159%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$5 +170%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $4 +$15 +388%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$8 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$11 +216%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$20 +388%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$11 +197%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 38¢ $3 9h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 35¢ $3 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 28¢ $3 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $10 25h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $3 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $3 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 25¢ $3 30h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 34¢ $3 44h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 15¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 19¢ $3 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 22¢ $3 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 22¢ $3 2d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) SELL LYON 99¢ $8 2d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 36¢ $3 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $3 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 31¢ $4 3d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 34¢ $4 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 30¢ $4 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 30¢ $4 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 18¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $4 3d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 27¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 35¢ $4 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY BASEMENT BOYS 19¢ $5 3d
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY Gen.G 26¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.25 · official $28.25 (match) · 390 history records