Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

56
0x560d…17d7
other · 114 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$16 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage108d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 1 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Celtics vs. Hawks Celtics 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat Nets 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Magic Magic 87¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Pistons Raptors 41¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Nets vs. Warriors Nets 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Spurs Rockets 34¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mavericks 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $375 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $236 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $463 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $398 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $478 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $177 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $440 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $422 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $251 −$2 -1%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $254 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $222 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $244 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $247 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $221 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 18 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $231 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $456 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $202 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$16
politics 31% −$10
sports 8% +$44
crypto 6% −$2
economics 3% −$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $24 53m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $214 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $201 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $201 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $168 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $168 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $247 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $247 19d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 19d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $177 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $177 19d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 19d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $228 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $190 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 21d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 21d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -1.4% -10.8% 6% 5% -9.7%
all 113 +3.2% -6.6% 13% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 10% -9.5%
10% -15.5% 9% -18.1%
15% -23.7% 7% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 322 history records