Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x5609…2020 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$862 (-23%) realized −$861 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$565
14 days−$887
30 days−$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$191
other 42% −$1,053
crypto 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.7% +4.7% 58% 58% +13.7%
≤30d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 44% -31.5%
≤90d 25 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 44% -31.5%
all 25 -12.1% -20.5% 44% 44% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 44% -31.5%
10% -28.1% 44% -38.1%
15% -35.0% 44% -44.1%
20% -41.4% 40% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$153 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$861
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage12d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $203 +$213 +105%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$81 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $217 +$205 +94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$30 -60%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $152 +$161 +106%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$29 -56%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $203 +$167 +82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $34 +$59 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $360 −$355 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $73 −$71 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $416 18h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $203 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 37h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 28¢ $102 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 41¢ $204 39h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $317 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 92¢ $421 47h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $203 2d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 47¢ $14 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 24¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $202 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $51 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $203 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $313 3d
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) SELL Egypt 3¢ $3 3d
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) SELL Egypt 6¢ $20 3d
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 12¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $370 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $151 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $203 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $51 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $34 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.98 · official $98.98 (match) · 43 history records