Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
56 0x5608…06e1 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$83 (+19%) realized +$14 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$162
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -42.9% -48.3% 40% 20% +25.5%
≤30d 5 -42.9% -48.3% 40% 20% +25.5%
≤90d 5 -42.9% -48.3% 40% 20% +25.5%
all 5 -42.9% -48.3% 40% 20% +25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 20% +25.5%
10% -53.3% 20% +13.5%
15% -57.8% 20% +2.5%
20% -61.9% 20% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +39% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$11 · ×5.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.87 per $1 lost it wins $3.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $200 $269 +$69 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$125 +62%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 −$20 -91%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.49 · official $269.49 (match) · 12 history records