Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5608…228f world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$15
other 16% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.1% -8.6% 33% 8% -7.2%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 7% -7.6%
≤90d 24 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 4% -7.9%
all 40 -1.6% -10.9% 42% 2% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -8.1%
10% -19.5% 0% -16.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -24.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.28 per $1 lost it wins $7.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage467d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $41 +$8 +18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $2 $0 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $57 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $31 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 27 $42 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $13 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $84 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $41 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 -9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 09 $12 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $0 $0 +8%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 65¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $41 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $7 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 13h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes $2 18h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $2 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $12 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $16 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $14 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $2 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.50 · official $3.50 (match) · 128 history records