Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
56 0x5605…5962 crypto 323 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,506 (-8%) realized −$1,504 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%175W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$30
14 days−$175
30 days−$1,886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$185
other 31% +$61
sports 20% −$1,848
politics 4% −$5
world 3% −$4
weather 1% −$114
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.6% -14.6% 15% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 216 -2.6% -11.9% 55% 37% -22.7%
≤90d 321 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 35% -17.8%
all 321 +1.9% -7.8% 55% 35% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 35% -17.8%
10% -16.6% 28% -25.7%
15% -24.7% 22% -32.9%
20% -32.0% 19% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,504
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses175 / 146
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)321 / 323
History coverage80d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 98¢ 97¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $56 −$1 -1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin Jun 22 $57 −$1 -2%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $56 +$2 +3%
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $90 −$1 -1%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 19 $63 −$1 -2%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $56 $0 -1%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $60 −$1 -1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 18 $58 $0 -1%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $71 +$1 +1%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $146 −$8 -6%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $77 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $124 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $115 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $59 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $113 −$25 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $78 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $106 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat? BUY Yes 91¢ $55 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $56 2h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin SELL Yes 97¢ $56 2h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $27 16h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $6 16h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 98¢ $25 16h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $56 16h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $33 24h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 96¢ $57 24h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $34 42h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $56 42h
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $90 2d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $90 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $24 2d
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $62 2d
Human moon landing in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $63 3d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 3d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 96¢ $59 3d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $60 3d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 3d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 97¢ $58 4d
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SELL SpaceX 98¢ $59 4d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 97¢ $58 4d
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY SpaceX 98¢ $59 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.16 · official $109.16 (match) · 1036 history records